Plumbing and water heating have seen some interesting changes over the past few years, with a greater concern for energy efficiency and escalating consumer interest in the choices available.
   So, what's ahead for the plumbing industry? Will it be driven by increased regulation or demand for ever-more-efficient products? Will the traditional product lines take on new roles or simply be replaced by newer, more advanced technology?
   We asked industry members share their thoughts on how the water heating, electronic plumbing and toilet categories will fare 25 years into the future.

Water Heating: More Options
"Asked to paint a picture of 25 years from now--assuming energy prices go up and the concern about carbon emissions continues to grow--renewable energy sources would seem would be important for heating water for the home," said Patrick Walker, vice president of marketing and strategic planning for A.O. Smith Water Products in Milwaukee. "If most of those types of heat sources are optimized when you can store that energy, tanks will be in the picture."
   Walker expects the storage water heater will remain a very significant part of the water heating market, "because there are advantages to storage that really haven't been effectively leveraged," but which become more important as you move into new and different types of heating sources. The more storage you have, the more opportunity you have to save when using solar thermal, heat pump, waste heat recovery systems, he added. "The fact that you can store that heat in a storage water heater battery becomes extremely important." 
   The sea change in water heating is the involvement of the homeowner in the process, Walker asserted. "With new alternatives-heat pump water heating, the resurgence of solar water heating, condensing gas-there's suddenly a lot of things for the homeowner to think about when choosing their next water heater. Homeowners have indicated in the last five years their willingness to be involved in this decision, and in many cases they are insisting on it."
   Controls will become an important part of whatever heating source is selected, Walker added, allowing the homeowner to manage their hot water requirements "or using controls in a sophisticated way to optimize the energy contribution from the most renewable or least expensive source."
   The U.S. water heater industry is evolving and at a comparatively rapid rate, agreed Tom Wujcik, national sales manager for Rheem Water Heating in Montgomery, Ala. "It is no exaggeration to say that our industry has witnessed more product innovation and technology introductions in the past five years than in the preceding five decades. Tankless water heaters, heat pump water heaters, solar thermal and geothermal systems are just a few of the more prominent breakthrough technologies. Although many of these are mature in markets outside our country, they are rapidly becoming mainstream with the U.S. consumer."
   A primary driver has been increased consumer interest in energy-efficient water heating solutions for the home, Wujcik added, spurred by rising energy prices and various government programs that offer financial rewards for installing more efficient equipment. "Neither trend-rising fuel costs nor rising consumer enthusiasm for products that help lower those costs without sacrifice in personal comfort-is likely to go away any time soon."
   Of course, the contractor remains the No. 1 local expert in water heaters, Wujcik said. "But he will hold that position only by mastering the new, alternative technologies, learning how to best use them in different applications. The trade must also figure out how to work profitably with today's more sophisticated homeowner, who has become more deeply involved in product selection and the final buying decision. Indeed, the consumer often sees himself as an expert of sorts, thanks to all the information on brands, pricing and technology at his fingertips online." 
   It wouldn't be surprising if high-efficiency condensing tankless water heaters became the standard for residential applications 25 years hence, "because it's highly energy efficient, it's easy to install and it uses PVC," suggested Shogo Togami, national sales manager for Takagi USA in Irvine, Calif. "Tankless technology will keep progressing as the needs of builders, plumbers, and homeowners continue to change and evolve."
   As time goes on, tankless water heaters will continue to become much easier and less costly to install, Togami predicted. "One of the biggest hurdles when it comes to going tankless is changing gas lines. So in 25 years, I think all of that will change, too. Engineers and architects will start designing homes with tankless water heaters in mind, like the location of the water heater, and the size of the gas lines. Homeowners would be able to easily switch to tankless without making gas line changes because the gas lines are already big enough to meet tankless requirements. The infrastructure of the home will then be built for tankless installations.
   "I imagine that in 25 years, tankless water heaters would account for a much larger percentage of the water heater market than it is now. We already estimate that in 10 years, the market will rise approximately 30 percent, so in 25 years, we aim to at least double that." 
   The tankless water heaters will be around in 25 years, because it is the most efficient way to heat domestic hot water, said Ralf Erlenhoff, inside sales and marketing, Monitor Products Inc. "The question is: What source of power they will use? I would guess solar electric energy. Compared to tank-type water heaters, which are heating water constantly, even if hot water is not needed, the tankless water heater can save up to 50 percent in water heating costs per year. 
   "The upfront costs for a tankless water heater are more, but in the long run you are saving on energy costs. The tankless water heater has a life expectancy of 15 to 20 years, the tank-type water heater between seven and 10 years. Since the most tankless water heaters are Energy Star rated the customer gets back up to $1,500 as a tax credit on unit and installation costs."
   Twenty five years from now, hybrids will dominate the water heating market, said Paul Home, director of product and marketing for Grand Hall USA, Inc. in Dallas. "Hybrids are smaller, more efficient, and compatible with all current infrastructures-gas/water/vent-and thus mean low retrofit costs.
   "In addition, the government's renewed focus on pushing green technologies will definitely accelerate the adoption of hybrid water heating products. Tankless was once thought to be the future, but due to expensive infrastructural changes required, it's become a niche category. Tanks are inherently inefficient, lacking in durability and definitely a thing of the past for future American homes in 25 years," Home said.

Electronic Plumbing: Getting Smarter
In the years leading up to 2035, it is projected 1.8 billion people will live in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, noted John Fitzgerald, vice president of marketing for Chicago Faucets in Des Plaines, Ill. If this projection holds true, "water conservation will no longer be just a worthwhile cause. It will become a mandate in both commercial and residential construction," Fitzgerald said. In that light, he predicts that in commercial, institutional and multi-family applications, electronic plumbing products will be networked, allowing the ability to monitor and precisely control water usage at all points throughout the building. 
   "The expected growth of this category, combined with improving technology and performance, will also lead to additional product advancements with more smart features that automatically adjust water flow or usage. Examples include electronic flush toilets that adjust flush volume based on liquid or solid waste and faucets that automatically recirculate water to provide precise temperature for different users or applications. "With the increased acceptance and growth of the segment, electronic faucets will become the dominant category for specific applications." 
   Twenty-five years from now the electronic plumbing category will be even more pervasive than it is today, agreed Richard A. Nortier, product manager-Optima at the Sloan Valve Co. in Franklin Park, Ill. "Currently, manually operated products still dominate, but change is being driven by continuously maturing technology coupled with increased user awareness and acceptance. As people continue to be exposed to "hands-free" plumbing products, their comfort level increases. The desire to touch as little as possible is moving sensor-operated plumbing into places beyond the restroom."
   Sensing technology has improved over the years, Nortier added, increasing reliability and usefulness, and further developments are expanding the functionality of electronics. "Already we have flush valves that not only flush automatically, but make judgment calls about water volume and frequency to save water. This type of intelligence will grow to incorporate other convenience, hygiene and maintenance functions. For more than 10 years, Sloan has been able to network flush valves, faucets and showers for reporting status and making operational adjustments, both at the device and remotely. Sloan foresees a bright future for electronics in deriving even greater savings and additional benefits for all types of facilities."
   There is no doubt that electronic/sensor plumbing ware is here to stay, said Frank Lastowski, vice president of marketing for Zurn Engineered Water Systems in Sanford, N.C. The questions are: to how many more plumbing applications can they be applied and what new alternative energy sources will be powering them. 
   "Begging the question takes into consideration that the basic components of the sensors-i.e. emitters and receivers-will improve, and possibly be replaced with other newer, improved sensing technologies. Smart building designs will call for smarter electronic plumbing products that will be monitored by building superintendents in real time and supply up to the minute data as water usage, sewage disposal, leak detection, etc. The technology is available. We need to apply it to products that will help take plumbing to the next level." 
   Technology is advancing to allow manufacturers to seamlessly incorporate electronics into plumbing products while still maintaining the aesthetics people enjoy, agreed Bob Rodenbeck, senior manager-research and development for Delta Faucet Co. in Indianapolis. "Over the next few decades, electronics and sensors in plumbing products will become almost ubiquitous, allowing them to perform their tasks more easily and efficiently and enhancing the lives of the users.
   "Today, sensors and electronics can start and stop the flow of water automatically, but that role will expand. Faucets and plumbing fixtures will become 'smarter,' including the ability to control water temperature and flow rate. This will not only allow people to work more efficiently, but also conserve water, which is already important. Also, I think we will see electronics being powered by sources like light or water pressure, rather than using batteries or being hard-wired to the home or building."

Toilets: Higher Efficiency
Looking toward 2035, the toilet industry will continue to show a strong movement towards high efficiency toilets due to increased water shortages and consumer awareness, envisaged Derek Kirkpatrick, North American general manager for Caroma USA, Inc. "However, the water volume used can only be reduced to a certain level without compromising performance. 
   "Because water use can't be eliminated like it can with waterless urinals, greater focus will be placed on improving the technology to maximize water conservation, yet still provide sufficient drain line carry, bowl cleaning, and reduction in clogging. The use of gray water systems will also become more common. Ultimately, high efficiency toilets will use water more efficiently and effectively," Kirkpatrick said.
   Established in European markets for years, the macerating toilet is starting to gain some popularity in U.S. markets, concurred Randall Waldron, vice president of sales and marketing for Liberty Pumps. "The system offers the flexibility of installing a bathroom where gravity sewer lines may not currently exist, without breaking the floor to bury a traditional-style sewage basin. 
   "While this type of system should see continued growth in the U.S., it is limited to applications of only a single toilet or one or two additional fixtures. Traditional larger sewage packages with more holding capacity and larger pump volumes should still maintain their position as the preferred system for bathroom additions," Waldron said.
   Niagara Conservation executive vice president Carl Wehmeyer said the Cedar Knolls, N.J., company believes consumers consider efficiency the new luxury and, as the market continues to expand, opportunities for companies operating in the space will become plentiful.
   "As the market for 'green' products continues to explode, it presents opportunities for everyone in the channel," Wehmeyer said. "The focus on reducing utility expenses and supporting the 'green' movement will continue to introduce new customer bases, product expansion opportunities and growth areas for our industry."
   To have a better idea of where the business will be in 2035 in the United States, we must look to to Europe, said Regis Saragosti, CEO of SFA Saniflo Inc. in Edison, N.J. "There, and all around the world, the macerator has become the perfect solution for adding an extra bathroom anywhere in a home or business without expensive construction or destruction. 
   "The fact of the matter is, using old-fashioned sewage ejector pumps will not be an accepted solution in 25 years. That's not a very tough prediction because sewage ejectors are not a clean, easy or cost-effective solution today. In 25 years, macerators will be commonplace, and sewage ejection will be as old-fashioned as the chamber pot and the outhouse. The potential for macerating pump systems in the United States varies from state to state, but the bottom line is that macerating pump systems bring an inexpensive solution to a very expensive problem. 
   "After 52 years in more than 100 countries, Saniflo is working hard to introduce macerating technology to everyone in the chain of distribution: the public, contractors, wholesalers, engineers, and even code officials. Over time, macerating units will become an increasingly important part of the plumbing business in the United States."